EP: 88 Why Trump’s Rise in Polls May Set Stage for 10% Correction

Futures Radio Show
EP: 88 Why Trump’s Rise in Polls May Set Stage for 10% Correction


Larry McDonald


Report: httpss://www.thebeartrapsreport

Managing Director: Global Head of Macro Strategy with ACG Analytics and The Founder & Editor of The Bear Traps Report

Recorded on: 9/13/16

Dear Traders,

Today we have a special guest on the show he’s the founder of the Bear Traps Report, author of a NY Times bestselling book titled “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense:  The Inside Story to the Collapse of Lehman Brothers” , and a CNBC Contributor,  His name is Larry McDonald. He’s also an ex-Lehman VP and today happens to be the 8th Anniversary of the Lehman Brothers collapse.

Today Larry talks to us about how the recent shift in presidential polls is contributing to the recent volatility in the stock market, and what he sees from here on out. He further explains how the political race will affect the US federal reserve policy, and ultimately affect the markets.

We discuss the remainder of 2016 and what is in stores for rate hikes, and also how the leveraged system is affecting oil prices.

I really enjoyed this interview with Larry, he shared a ton of great insight. Please listen closely and enjoy the episode…

Biggest Takeaways:

  1. Larry says Trump’s gain in poles could cause 10% drop in market.
  2. The political race and how it will affect the fed chair’s.
  3. How the leveraged system is affecting oil.
  4. Larry gives fed outlook for remainder of 2016.
  5. He feels the fed is trying to talk up the economy to get a rate hike in.
  6. Shocking fed chair’s contribution to Hilary Clinton’s campaign.

Answers to the 4 rapid fire questions at the end of the show:

  1. Favorite Book About Trading:
    – David Einhorn’s fooling some of the people all of the time.
  2. Favorite Movie About Trading:
    – Trading Places
  3. Best Advice Ever Received About Trading:
    – There’s nothing in this world which will so violently distort a man’s judgment more than the sight of his neighbor getting rich.”- JP Morgan

    • When you’re watching everyone else in the market getting rich, take cash and wait for the fear.
  4. Advice to Give to Others About Trading:
    – Life is a long time. The clearer purpose you have at a young age, the more time you have to focus in one direction, the better your chances of being at the top become.



  • We have a federal reserve that doesn’t allow the business cycle to function.
  • The Fed is creating asset bubbles this time instead of banks.

Relevant chart pertaining to guest’s comments:


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