1. Central Banks
2. The Dollar Curse & Blessing
4. Treasury Market Dynamics
5. Credit Markets
6. Best & Worst-Case Macro Scenarios
Rapid Fire ?
Q. What trader has influenced your life the most and why?
A. I have been fortunate to have worked on many trading floors over the last 20 years, so there is a long list of great risk takers that I have been blessed to learn from, however on the pure strategy side I would say that my first real mentor, Jerry Lucas (where I worked with him at ML and then BofA) helped me understand Fed Fund futures, plumbing of the money markets, how Japan trades rates products and how to track flow data. The Japan analysis that I did early on in my career helped me better navigate the last decade of low rates.
Q. What was one of the hardest things you’ve had to overcome in strategy recommendations?
A. I would have to say how to size up the trade right and learned that risk management was equally important to the analysis that is done before entering into a new trade recommendation.
Q. How has your strategy recommendation process evolved over the years?
A. Initially I was more spreadsheet/quant focused, expecting markets to always mean-revert. Over the last 5-10-years I fine tuned my macro game and how to understand which regime you are in is half the battle.
Q. What is one attribute that you believe every trader should have?
A. Being humble but assertive, the world and markets are bigger than you, get used to it and find your place.
Q. Favorite Book About Trading?
A. I have read many technical books, but I think given what we are going through and what may still lie ahead for how the world of central banks and money markets look, I recommend your listeners to check out Walter Bagehot’s Lombard Street. It’s a classic but shows that the laws of economics cannot bend forever.
Q. What’s the best piece of advice you’ve received about Trading?
A. This is a bit cliché, but “stick to your stop-losses and let your winner run”, easier said than done!
Q. If you had to pick a profession other than working in financial markets, what would it be?
A. Those that know me, know that I like speed and although trading markets can give you that feeling of a rush at times, for me its not the same as being on a race track, so I would say a race car driver.
Q. If you could give the younger you advice after everything you’ve learned about trading and the markets, what would it be?
A. As per some of the answers above, I would tell myself to learn which liquidity regime you’re in and trade it!
Q. If you had to elevator pitch me your edge in trading what would it be?
A. I would say that experience does count, that I know how to read the models but I’m not married to them and that I feel great insight into how volumes, positioning and flows are driving the price action.
Q. What’s your favorite thing to do when you’re not working?
A. Traveling and exploring with my family, however that needs to be put on hold for now. In terms of hobbies I love to tinker and build things, especially mechanical and electronics, so I’m doing a lot of that now with my son (as my Dad did with me when I was younger) so we are re-building cars and things around the house.
Record Date: 3/28/20
10yr Treasury Futures Vol
10yr Inflation Expectations
CCC Spreads (proxy for energy firms)
ETF & Mutual Fund Flows